Bye-Election Victories Do Not Determine General Election Outcomes
There is absolutely nothing to brag about in winning the Ekiti bye-election and other subsequent bye-elections. Some supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are attempting to create the impression that the political contest for 2027 is already over simply because the party is winning bye-elections. History, however, tells a completely different story.
In Nigeria’s political history, ruling parties have traditionally enjoyed significant advantages in bye-elections. These elections often take place in isolated constituencies, attract lower voter turnout, and are conducted within an environment where the ruling party has greater access to state resources, visibility, and political influence. As a result, victories in bye-elections are not necessarily a reliable indicator of the outcome of a nationwide general election.
A perfect example is the period leading to the 2015 general election. Between 2013 and 2014, the PDP, which was then the ruling party, recorded several significant electoral victories. The party won the Delta Central Senatorial bye-election in 2013 and secured major victories in the 2014 Ekiti Governorship Election, where Ayo Fayose defeated the incumbent APC governor. At the same time, the PDP remained electorally competitive in states such as Edo and across several other contests, creating the widespread perception that it remained the dominant political force in the country.
At the time, many PDP supporters believed those victories proved that the party would comfortably retain power in 2015. The opposition was dismissed, and the ruling party appeared unbeatable. Yet, when Nigerians went to the polls in the 2015 general election, the opposition defeated the PDP and ended its sixteen-year hold on power.
The lesson is simple: bye-election victories may generate headlines, but they do not automatically translate into victory at a general election. General elections are fundamentally different. They involve the collective judgment of millions of Nigerians across all regions, voting on the overall performance of a government, the state of the economy, security, and the quality of leadership being offered.
Those celebrating bye-election victories as proof that the next general election has already been decided may be ignoring the lessons of history. Political realities can change rapidly, and the true test of public support comes when the entire nation votes. Until then, no political party should assume victory, and no opposition should consider the contest over.
✍️ Surajo Almustapha
Director Media and Communication
ADC Media Organization
