𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬? 𝐁𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐦 𝐍𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐫𝐮 𝐄𝐥-𝐑𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐢.

2026Context To put matters in context, let’s begin with these 10 quotes, mainly from the years of PDP rule and a few from the APC years: 1. “We cannot talk about the vitality of Nigerian democracy without talking about the vitality of the political opposition. For there is no democracy without diversity in substantive opinion and political affiliation.” Date: July 18, 2011. Event: Speech titled “Democracy in Nigeria and the Rebirth of Opposition” delivered at Chatham House, London.2. “To underscore this fundamental concept, our party spurned an offer by the ruling party to join a nebulous ‘Unity Government’. Our ground of rejection was that our democracy would be better nourished and better served if we, as a minority party, remain outside the loop of power to nurture the culture of opposition.” Date: July 18, 2011. Event: Speech titled “Democracy in Nigeria and the Rebirth of Opposition” delivered at Chatham House, London.3. “There are many people who are all too willing to take advantage of the democratic process. They advocate democracy up to the point of gaining power and no further. Once in power, they eagerly whittle down the very democratic mechanisms that enabled their political ascent.” Date: July 18, 2011. Event: Speech titled “Democracy in Nigeria and the Rebirth of Opposition” delivered at Chatham House, London.4. “Nigerian democracy is not yet strong enough to have corralled these errant forces. Actors with democratic phenotypes but authoritarian genotypes abound in the current political landscape.” Date: July 18, 2011. Event: Speech titled “Democracy in Nigeria and the Rebirth of Opposition” delivered at Chatham House, London.5. “Rather than resort to the streets in protest and encourage anarchy, the opposition resorted to the courts because of its respect for the rule of law and began the battle to regain the stolen mandates.” Date: July 18, 2011. Event: Speech titled “Democracy in Nigeria and the Rebirth of Opposition” delivered at Chatham House, London.6. “Rather than fight terrorists the govt targets opposition. D equipment procured to track & fight BH is now being deployed against Oppositn.” Date: August 12, 2014. Event: Statement posted on X (formerly Twitter) criticizing the federal government’s actions under President Goodluck Jonathan during the Boko Haram insurgency.7. “The arrest of Nasir El-Rufai by the SSS in Anambra if true is another blot on our democracy, coming after yesterday’s failed frame up.” Date: November 16, 2013. Event: Statement posted on X (formerly Twitter) addressing the arrest of an opposition figure by the State Security Service under the ruling People’s Democratic Party administration.8. “This is democracy at gun point. Our democracy is now at the mercy of the gun. Jega caved in to pressure and blackmail.” Date: February 7, 2015. Event: Statement posted on X (formerly Twitter) in response to the postponement of the 2015 general elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission under pressure from the ruling government.9. “The vigour and vibrancy of the protests are an indication of the growing strength of the democratic culture in Nigeria. It is a demonstration of the beauty of democracy and its promotion and protection of people’s power.” Date: October 19, 2020. Event: Statement issued during the #EndSARS protests against police brutality, emphasizing the role of protests in democracy.10. “The use of strong force against any peaceful protesters is indefensible, completely outside the norms of a democratic society and progressive political culture to which I aspire and have devoted my public life.” Date: October 25, 2020. Event: Statement issued in the aftermath of the Lekki Toll Gate incident during the #EndSARS protests, defending the right to peaceful opposition.The ten quotes above are from Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was, until 2015, amongst the most prominent opposition politicians in modern Nigeria.IntroductionOne defining feature of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic since 1999 has been the persistence of political competition. Imperfect and often turbulent, our political system has nonetheless allowed alternation, contestation, and meaningful choice. Dominance at the centre has repeatedly been countervailed by opposition victories in states. The myth of incumbent invincibility was decisively broken in 2015, and the tightly fought elections of 2023 reaffirmed the enduring pluralism of Nigerian political life. As I noted recently at the Daily Trust Dialogue, this democratic endurance “constitutes a credit not only to politicians and parties but to the ordinary Nigerian and is indeed a cause for national celebration.”Yet as the country moves toward the 2027 general elections, there are disturbing signs that this tradition of competitive democracy is under systematic threat. What is unfolding is not merely the rough-and-tumble of partisan politics, but an attempt to re-engineer Nigeria into a democracy without competition, featuring elections without real choice, and power without legitimacy.The Project to Hollow Out Political PluralismThe present administration appears increasingly uncomfortable with political pluralism. Across the federation, the ruling party has embarked on an aggressive campaign to portray Nigeria as a virtual one-party state. Governors elected on opposition platforms have been cajoled, pressured, or coerced into defecting. Alongside this poaching runs a more insidious programme: the deliberate weakening, factionalisation, or destruction of opposition parties capable of mounting a credible challenge in 2027.As I observed at the Daily Trust Dialogue, this effort relies on a calculated mix of carrot and stick: selective and constitutionally questionable financial inducements on the one hand, and explicit or implicit threats of arrest, detention, or prolonged investigation by coercive agencies on the other. Governors, legislators, and political actors are being “persuaded” to defect not by ideology or performance, but by fear and survival instinct. The resulting wave of defections reflects not political convergence, but democratic distress.Weaponising State Power Against DissentBeyond party-level manipulation lies a more dangerous trend: the systematic persecution of individuals perceived as potential anchors of a democratic alternative. Opposition figures are subjected to sustained media vilification, reputational attacks, and selective law enforcement. Even Nigeria’s grave security challenges are being cynically exploited, with allegations of terrorism financing or national security threats casually deployed against political opponents.At the centre of this strategy is the growing politicisation of national security architecture. Agencies endowed with extraordinary coercive powers—intended to protect the state and its citizens—are being pressured to target opposition politicians and to cripple businesses allegedly linked to them. These actions, many of them of dubious legality, corrode the rule of law and convert state institutions into partisan instruments.Africa’s Cautionary Tales—and Nigeria’s ChoiceThis trajectory recalls the practices of certain African regimes that pride themselves on “stability,” countries whose ruling parties perpetually win elections by implausible margins. In such systems, democratic contests are rendered meaningless long before ballots are cast. Nigeria must resist the temptation to emulate these models. Our Constitution does not require unanimity or political monopoly. The threshold it prescribes for victory is a simple majority of votes cast, combined with the required geographical spread. Even if the Constitution had specified much tougher conditions for electoral victory, it would still behove on all political actors to respect the law and the spirit of democratic contestation. Therefore, there is no constitutional justification for destroying the political space in the name of electoral convenience.Democracy without competition is not stability—it is stagnation. Elections without choice do not confer legitimacy; they merely postpone reckoning. Nigeria is better than this, and Nigerians know it.Economic and Institutional Consequences of Democratic ErosionThe erosion of political freedom carries direct economic costs. Investor confidence depends not only on macroeconomic indicators, but on institutional predictability, judicial independence, and respect for due process. A climate in which businesses can be targeted by association, where prosecutions appear selective, raises risk premiums and depresses long-term investment. Democratic backsliding thus compounds existing challenges in foreign exchange stability, power sector reform, and fiscal federalism.Equally damaging is the impact on the judiciary and law enforcement institutions themselves. When courts are perceived as instruments of political intimidation rather than neutral arbiters, public trust erodes. Appellate trends that suggest deference to executive pressure, rather than rigorous protection of rights, deepen the crisis of confidence.Reclaiming the Democratic PurposeA patriotic contribution to Nigeria’s political future lies not in suppressing opposition, but in strengthening democratic practice. Free and fair elections require not only credible electoral administration, but an open political climate in which citizens can organise, speak, and choose without fear.As Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu said in a 2011 Chatham House speech “we cannot talk about the vitality of Nigerian democracy without talking about the vitality of the political opposition. For there is no democracy without diversity in substantive opinion and political affiliation.” He spoke these words as an opposition leader. As president, he has a duty to follow this sterling path and use his powers and influence to secure for our country a vibrant, competitive democracy, freedom from oppression and better life for its citizens. The central task before Nigeria is not how to eliminate rivals, but how to mobilise political energy, policy talent, and managerial competence to meet citizens’ real needs: human security, quality public education, accessible healthcare, reliable infrastructure, and inclusive economic opportunity. These are the true tests on which governments should seek re-election.Conclusion: The Road to 2027As 2027 approaches, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. One path leads toward managed democracy, which appears orderly on the surface but is hollow at its core. The other preserves the noisy, demanding, and ultimately creative pluralism that has sustained the Fourth Republic for over two decades.The choice should not be difficult. Nigeria’s strength has always relied on its diversity of voices and the resilience of its people. To silence that diversity in the name of control would be to betray both the Constitution and the future. Democracy with competition is not a threat to Nigeria’s stability, but its surest foundation.