OPINION: Tinubu’s candidacy will create serious problem for the core north. Have you ever thought of what will happen if Asiwaju wins the primary election? The problem isn’t about giving Tinubu the party’s ticket. The problem is where will his running mate come from, what ethnicity and religion? These are the major problems for Tinubu and the core north.
A Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket doesn’t have a place in Nigeria’s presidential politics, and no party will win with such ticket. There’s absolutely no need to even experiment on this because it’ll be a total failure and spell a doom for any party that attempts to do that. If that’s the case, then what is the fate of BAT?
Tinubu is not a religious bigots and that’s why even the political godsons and daughters he mentored are cut across various religions. No body can take that away from the Asiwaju. Even his wife is a Christians, and a deaconess. So I don’t see him picking a Muslim running mate if he eventually clinches his party’s presidential ticket.
Northern oligarchs would never support a Northern Christian as president nor will they throw their weight behind a northern minority Christian as Vice President, and this is why Tinubu may not emerge as the APC’s flagbearer. Northerners, especially the Fulanis cannot imagine a presidency without one of their own, either as the president or vice president. It’ll be an aberration and an insult to their political dynasty and sensibilities even though it shouldn’t be seen that way.
Tinubu knows that picking a Fulani Muslim as his running mate if he eventually wins the primary election would lead to a monumental loss and also put an end to his lifelong political ambition. But I strongly believe that if he wins the primary and picks a Christian northern minority, he will no doubt win the general election, especially if the opposition party’s flagbearer is a northern Muslim with a Christian running mate either from the South East or any party of the country.
Truth be told, Northerners alone cannot win presidential election. They will have to seek for the support of other regions, and that’s why Buhari could not win election in the past until the west supported him with their votes. Let’s take a look at Osinbajo’s chances of winning the primary election.
Osinbajo is a Christian, and also from the South West. The northern oligarchs would rather favour him than Tinubu who is also a Yoruba man like him, but a Muslim. The calculation is simple. Osinbajo is a Christian and will no doubt pick a Northern Muslim man (possibly a Fulani man) as his running mate. Even though he doesn’t have a any meaningful and so-called political structure like his godfather, he stands the chance of winning for the fact that his candidature will give the northerners what they like — a Fulani vice president. It is on this reason that the Vice President’s chances of winning is relatively higher than that of his godfather, the Asiwaju a.k.a the Jagaban of Borgu.
By Didam Musa Goni